[비즈한국] In the real estate market, new towns are generally valued as "new." Their advantages include a high supply of new apartments, wide roads, and schools and parks that are planned and built systematically. However, after about 20 years, the narrative changes. The name "new town" remains, but the apartments become "old stock," and they begin to be compared with newly developed areas nearby.
Dongtan has entered this stage. Dongtan 1 New Town began moving in earnest in the mid-2000s. Nearly 20 years have already passed. On the other hand, Dongtan 2 New Town has recently established itself as the center of the Dongtan housing market, bolstered by Dongtan Station, the GTX-A line, Lake Park, and large-scale new housing complexes. Consequently, the market has naturally created a dynamic of "Dongtan 2 is for new housing, Dongtan 1 is for older housing."
However, looking at the Dongtan market recently, one might think differently. Is the problem with Dongtan 1 truly that the location is old, or is it that the housing stock is aged despite the prime location?
The movement of Dongtan housing prices this year has been quite strong. According to the Korea Real Estate Board, apartment sale prices in Dongtan-gu rose 17.5% from the beginning of the year through the first week of September. Transactions in the 1.7 to 2 billion won range have continued, with Dongtan Station Lotte Castle (exclusive area 84㎡) trading for 2.225 billion won in June, while Dongtan Station Sibeom Unam Firstville and Sibeom Hanhwa Dream & Green Prestige traded for 1.86 billion won and 1.84 billion won, respectively. About 70% of the apartment transaction volume in Hwaseong-si from January to July this year occurred in Dongtan-gu.
Of course, there is an aspect where prices rose too rapidly in the short term. The market was so overheated in June that the weekly growth rate exceeded 2%, and subsequent tightening of regulations led to a significant drop in transactions. As there have even been some contract cancellations, it is difficult to interpret all recent gains as a normal long-term trend.
Nevertheless, one thing has become clear: the fact that there is actual housing demand in Dongtan capable of paying 1.5 to 2 billion won. Why is that?
Ultimately, Dongtan's greatest competitive edge is its jobs. Centered around Samsung Electronics' Hwaseong and Giheung campuses, there is a deep pool of high-income semiconductor workers. Accessibility to Seoul has also improved with the opening of the GTX-A line. In fact, analysts note that even locally, inquiries are increasing for areas with convenient commutes to Samsung Electronics' workplaces.
This is well-known. What I am more interested in is what comes next.
The residents of Dongtan themselves have grown over the last 20 years. The 30-something office workers who first moved into Dongtan 1 are now in their late 40s or 50s. They may have become managers or executives at their companies, and if they are dual-income households, their income is likely much higher. In the meantime, their assets have also grown as housing prices rose. Their children have also grown from elementary schoolers to middle/high schoolers or university students.
But must this family necessarily leave Dongtan just because they want to live in a better home? It could actually be the opposite.
Their jobs are still in Hwaseong and Giheung, and their children’s schools and academies are here. They have their regular hospitals, restaurants, and familiar commercial districts. There is also Dongtan Central Park. Every facet of their daily life is already set up.
This is the strength of Dongtan 1 New Town. The living infrastructure is not "planned"—it is already complete. In new towns, people are told, "Commercial districts will move in after 5 years," "A school is scheduled to open," or "A park will be built." In Dongtan 1, there is no need for that. It has already been verified by people living there for nearly 20 years.
The problem is the housing. If residents want to keep living in a good residential area but the options are mostly 15–20-year-old apartments, the desire to "trade up" occurs naturally. I believe this "demand to stay within the existing residential area while trading up" will become quite important when looking at the first and second generation new towns in the capital region.
People do not always move in search of new cities. If a residential area is satisfactory, they look for better homes within that same area. Therefore, the core question for Dongtan 1 moving forward is not "Is it better or worse than Dongtan 2?" but rather "Is there enough quality new housing for those who want to keep living in Dongtan 1?"
What is important is that there is demand. In the early stages of a housing market's growth, "how many units to supply" is what matters. After a city has matured, "what kind of houses to supply" becomes the priority.
If the questions about Dongtan in the past were "Is commuting to Seoul possible?" and "How much does an 84㎡ unit cost?", the questions are changing now. Demand has emerged that considers whether parking is convenient, if there is enough storage space, if the view is good, what the ceiling height and finishing materials are like, and if the community facilities are actually usable.
This is not simply a demand for luxury goods. It means the level of living quality demanded by households with increased income and assets has risen.
The presale price is, of course, important. Just because the prices of major residential products in Dongtan have risen to the 1.7–2.2 billion won range recently does not mean any price will be accepted for a new apartment. Presale prices, financial costs, and market conditions at the time of move-in must be carefully considered.
However, evaluating the current Dongtan with the price perceptions of 10 years ago is also incorrect. This is because not only the GTX and semiconductor jobs but also the already-formed high-income demand and appreciation of asset values have changed the benchmarks of the housing market. I believe we should actually re-examine Dongtan 1.
It is true that Dongtan 2 rose because its new apartments are good. But that does not mean that residential demand for Dongtan 1 is weak. Dongtan 1 already has schools, commercial districts, parks, and jobs. What is missing may not be living infrastructure, but new housing products that match the current standard of living.
When a city becomes a good place to live, people do not leave. Instead, they look for better homes. Dongtan 1 has now entered that stage. When looking at this area's housing market in the future, we should look not just at the age of the old buildings, but also at the residential area built up over 20 years, the purchasing power, and the resulting demand for trading up to higher-quality housing.
Ultimately, the future of Dongtan 1 is not that of a "city finished because it lacks new apartments," but closer to a "city with a backlog of demand waiting for quality residential facilities."