[비즈한국] In the real estate market, new towns are generally valued for being "new." Their advantages lie in having a large supply of new apartments, wide roads, and systematically planned schools and parks. However, once about 20 years pass, the narrative changes. The name "new town" remains, but the apartments become aging, and they begin to be compared to newly developed surrounding areas.
Dongtan has entered this phase. Residents began moving into Dongtan 1 New Town in earnest from the mid-2000s. Nearly 20 years have already passed. On the other hand, Dongtan 2 New Town has recently established itself as the center of the Dongtan housing market, bolstered by Dongtan Station, the GTX-A line, Lake Park, and large-scale new apartment complexes. Consequently, the market has naturally adopted the dichotomy of "Dongtan 2 is new, Dongtan 1 is old."
However, looking at the Dongtan market recently, one starts to think differently. Is the problem with Dongtan 1 truly that the location has aged? Or is it that the housing stock is outdated relative to its prime location?
The movement of Dongtan house prices this year is quite strong. According to the Korea Real Estate Board, apartment sale prices in Dongtan-gu rose 17.5% from the beginning of the year through the first week of September. Transactions in the 1.7 to 2 billion KRW range have continued, with Lotte Castle at Dongtan Station (exclusive area 84㎡) trading at 2.225 billion KRW in June, while Sibeom Unam Firstville and Sibeom Hanhwa Dream & Green Prestige traded at 1.86 billion KRW and 1.84 billion KRW, respectively. Between January and July of this year, approximately 70% of apartment transactions in Hwaseong City occurred in Dongtan-gu.
Of course, prices have risen too quickly in the short term. The market overheated to the point where weekly growth exceeded 2% in June, and subsequent tightening of regulations led to a significant drop in trading. As there were even some contract cancellations, it is difficult to interpret all of the recent gains as a normal long-term trend.
Nevertheless, one thing has become clear: there is actual housing demand in Dongtan capable of paying 1.5 to 2 billion KRW. Why is that?
Ultimately, Dongtan's greatest competitive edge is its jobs. Centered around Samsung Electronics' Hwaseong and Giheung campuses, there is a dense population of high-income semiconductor workers. Accessibility to Seoul has also improved with the opening of the GTX-A. In fact, analysis shows that local inquiries are increasing from people looking for areas with convenient commutes to Samsung Electronics workplaces.
This much is widely known. What I am focusing on is what comes next.
The residents of Dongtan themselves have grown over the last 20 years. The office workers in their 30s who first moved into Dongtan 1 are now in their late 40s or 50s. They may have become department heads or executives at their companies, and if they are dual-income households, their income has likely increased significantly. Meanwhile, their assets have grown alongside rising housing prices. Their children have also grown from elementary students into middle or high schoolers, or even college students.
But does this family have to leave Dongtan just because they want to live in a better house? It might actually be the opposite.
Their workplaces are still in Hwaseong and Giheung, and their children’s schools and academies are there. They have their favorite hospitals and restaurants, and they are accustomed to the local commercial district. Dongtan Central Park is there, too. Every pattern of daily life is already established.
This is the strength of Dongtan 1 New Town. The living infrastructure is not "planned"—it is already complete. In new towns, people are told, "The commercial district will open in five years," "Schools are scheduled to be built," or "A park will be created." In Dongtan 1, there is no need for that. It has already been verified by people living there for nearly 20 years.
The problem is the housing. People want to continue living in a high-quality residential environment, but if their housing options are mostly 15–20-year-old apartments, the desire to "trade up" occurs naturally. I believe this "demand to stay within the existing residential sphere while upgrading" will become quite important when looking at the first and second-generation new towns in the Seoul metropolitan area.
People do not always move in search of new cities. If a residential area is satisfactory, they look for better homes within it. Therefore, the core question for Dongtan 1 moving forward is not "Is it better or worse than Dongtan 2?" but rather, "Are there enough high-quality new homes for those who want to keep living in Dongtan 1?"
What matters is that the demand exists. In the early stages of a housing market's growth, "how many units to supply" is important. After a city has matured, "what kind of houses to supply" becomes important.
While the question in Dongtan used to be "Can you commute to Seoul?" or "How much does an 84㎡ unit cost?", things are changing. Now, there is demand evaluating whether parking is convenient, if there is sufficient storage, if the view is good, how the ceiling height and finishing materials are, and whether the community facilities are actually useful.
This is not merely a demand for luxury goods. It means that the standard of living quality required for housing by households with increased income and assets has risen.
The sale price is, of course, important. Just because the prices of major residential products in Dongtan have risen to the 1.7–2.2 billion KRW range, it does not mean that any new apartment will be accepted at any price. The sale price, financial costs, and the market situation at the time of move-in must be carefully considered.
However, evaluating the current Dongtan with a price perspective from 10 years ago is also incorrect. This is because not only the GTX and semiconductor jobs but also the already-formed high-income demand and the increase in asset value have changed the benchmark for the housing market. I believe that we should actually take a fresh look at Dongtan 1.
It is true that Dongtan 2 has risen because its new apartments are good. But that does not mean the housing demand in Dongtan 1 is weak. Dongtan 1 already has schools, commercial districts, parks, and jobs. What is missing is not the infrastructure, but perhaps new housing products that match the standard of living there.
When a city becomes a good place to live, people don't leave. Instead, they look for better homes. Dongtan 1 has now entered that stage. When looking at the housing market in this region in the future, we should look not just at the age of the old buildings, but at the 20 years of accumulated residential infrastructure, purchasing power, and the resulting demand for high-quality housing upgrades.
Ultimately, the future of Dongtan 1 is likely closer to "a city with accumulated demand waiting for good housing facilities" rather than "a city that is finished because it lacks new apartments."