[비즈한국] I read the essay by Policy Chief Kim Yong-beom titled, 'The Joy, Unfamiliarity, and Fear of a Nominal High-10% Economy (June 20).' It is an excellent piece that honestly captures the joy and fear in the face of prosperity where the nominal growth rate has exceeded double digits. However, one sentence particularly stood out to those of us in the real estate industry.
"This time, it is highly likely that those with cash, rather than those who take on debt, will make a move. If there is confidence that a deal remains profitable even after paying taxes, most regulations may prove insufficient."
It is, in effect, someone in a position to design policy admitting the limitations of demand-suppressing policies. I have been saying the same thing for a long time: regulations that suppress demand fail to increase supply and ultimately only lock up properties. This time, the Policy Chief has rewritten that sentiment in the language of macroeconomics.
Therefore, this article is not just a simple economic column. It is a trailer for the real estate market. Let us translate that trailer into our own language.
Money Yet to Be Released: 13.2% vs. 3.8%
The scariest number in the article is not the nominal growth rate of 17.1%. It is the part noting that while real GDP grew by 3.8%, real GDI (Gross Domestic Income) grew by 13.2%. A 9.4 percentage point gap. It was stated that this is a size unseen in the past 25 years.
If we translate the difference between these two numbers into the language of a real estate professional, it means this: our ability to buy things with what we sell (13.2%) has grown overwhelmingly more than the amount we actually produced (3.8%). Because semiconductor prices have risen so much, we can buy far more with the same amount of labor.
The key point is that this is "already determined purchasing power." It just hasn't all landed in bank accounts yet, but its arrival is certain. It will be released over time through performance bonuses, wage increases, and the exchange of export proceeds.
What is the most powerful buying energy in the real estate market? It is not debt. It is "confirmed cash." Debt is swayed by interest rates and blocked by regulations, but cash in hand is not. What macroeconomic indicators are forecasting now is that the total amount of cash that will flow toward prime locations in the near future is unusually large.
When Cash, Not Debt, Moves
The logic behind regulations over the past few years has been simple: tighten loans and increase taxes to cool down demand. It was effective, too—for those buying with debt.
However, the actors in this current boom are different. They are the people who received semiconductor performance bonuses, companies and their employees who shared in the spoils of the record-high current account surplus, and wealthy individuals who reaped valuation gains from the stock market rise. They do not move by taking on debt. They move with the money they possess.
To a cash buyer, loan regulations are paper tigers. They are not people for whom the LTV percentage matters. Heavy capital gains taxes? Increases in property taxes? As Kim expressed, if there is confidence that it is "a deal that remains profitable even after paying taxes," most regulations will only delay their entry but not block it.
Here, the side effects of heavy capital gains taxes overlap. If you impose heavy capital gains taxes on multi-home owners, those who need to sell do not sell. Properties get locked up. Into a market where supply is reduced, cash demand that is not blocked by regulations flows in. There is only one conclusion to this combination: prices in preferred regions will head upward.
Regulations tried to suppress demand, but in reality, they are locking up supply. And the demand that really needs to be suppressed is cash, which regulations cannot reach. The Policy Chief's article effectively acknowledges this paradox.
Money Is Not Sprinkled into Thin Air
So, where will this money go? We often bundle it by saying "liquidity flows into real estate," but money is not sprinkled evenly across the country. There are specific places where it lands.
Let's look at the epicenter of this boom. It is semiconductors and AI. The operating profits of Samsung Electronics005930 and SK Hynix000660 have exploded, and the bonuses are entering their employees' accounts. Where do these employees live and work? It is the semiconductor belt connecting Dongtan, Pyeongtaek, Hwaseong, Suwon, and Giheung.
This is why the record-high price march around Dongtan Station is no coincidence. It is because that is exactly where the macroeconomic GDI surplus is being realized first and most intensely. The value of proximity to work increases as performance bonuses get larger. Thick cash from good jobs heads toward the 'precious one' (a high-quality property) near those jobs.
Of course, traditional preferred areas, including Gangnam, are no exception. As always, the cash of the wealthy and stock market gains gather in proven locations. However, the new variable in this cycle is that, in addition to that, "new cash created by industry" is falling intensively on specific regions. If you follow the source of the money, you can see the location of the next chapter.
The Boom Heads Up, Austerity Heads Down
In his article, Kim honestly painted the most uncomfortable picture: "The fruits of a boom head upward, while the pain of austerity heads downward." What this one sentence means for the real estate market is clear: polarization. It is a polarization underpinned by macroeconomic structures that cannot be easily reversed.
The fruits heading upward make the cash-rich even wealthier, and that money gathers in preferred regions. On the other hand, the self-employed, vulnerable borrowers, and variable-rate loan holders who have not felt the boom are placed in a different fate. If nominal growth continues, it is difficult for current interest rates to be maintained forever. If interest rates rise, who will get hit first? It is not the person who received a bonus. It is the person who bought a home on the outskirts with debt.
Prime areas become solid with cash, while the outskirts and marginal borrowers are exposed to interest rates. Kim's insight that averages are improving but the middle is shaking translates to "locational polarization" on the real estate map.
Therefore, the strategy for this phase is clear: moving to an asset that will not shake—the 'precious one.' This is not a vague slogan. It is the macroeconomic conclusion pointed to by both the structure where the fruits of the boom head up and the structure where the pain of austerity heads down.
Signals Come from Exchange Rates and Jeonse
Then, when will it move? Kim kindly even drew a timetable: the first half is quiet, the atmosphere changes in the second half, and the real hurdle is at the end of the year and the beginning of next year.
The reason the first half is quiet is that the stock market has pre-reflected the boom, and people are still in a wait-and-see mode. They see the good numbers in the news, but they are at a stage where they cannot yet feel it as a reality in their own lives. Then, as performance is finalized in the second half and the scale of bonuses becomes visible, confidence takes root in their minds: "This year is truly different."
I see two signs that this confidence will turn into action.
First, the exchange rate. Currently, the surge in semiconductor exports paradoxically leads to a weak won. This is due to foreign investors' rebalancing. However, once the accumulated trade surplus is repatriated domestically, the won will begin to regain stability. As Kim says, at that moment, those who were waiting and seeing will move. Won stability is the macroeconomic signal for "end of waiting, start of entry."
Second, Jeonse (lump-sum housing lease deposits). I always view Jeonse prices as a leading indicator for home purchase prices. Before cash begins to shift to purchasing in earnest, Jeonse prices in prime locations will firm up first. Added to this is the concern about the 2026 supply cliff. If Jeonse prices are supported in a period where move-in supply is drying up, the pressure to shift from Jeonse to purchasing will be faster than usual.
The stabilization of the exchange rate and the rebound of Jeonse in prime areas. The moment these two signals turn on simultaneously is the inflection point where the market will move. It coincides exactly with Kim's timetable to watch the end of the year and the beginning of next year.
If You Can't Block It, It Will Flow
Kim concluded the article by asking where this money should flow. He noted that if the national wealth earned by semiconductors is absorbed into real estate unearned income, the boom will not last long, but if it is connected to youth and future industries, it can become a starting point to escape the tunnel of low growth.
From the position of policy, this is the right concern. I agree with the direction of reasonably normalizing property taxes and capital gains taxes. However, as a participant in the real estate market, to speak plainly, the conclusion of that concern is already being forecast by macroeconomic indicators.
If you can't block it, it flows. And for decades, the Korean economy has collectively learned where this kind of money eventually heads. It is hard to guarantee that this time will be an exception. Kim himself wrote that, too.
I sincerely hope that policy can turn this flow toward a better future. But until that choice is made, cash does not wait. Confirmed purchasing power is released over time and moves toward places where regulations cannot reach.
Numbers only show the direction; they do not make the choice for you. This does not only apply to policy. It applies equally to each of us reading this article. In the face of a record-breaking prosperity that has arrived after 20 years, we are being asked again to make a kind of choice we have not faced for a long time.
A historic boom requires imagination to match it. And the executive ability to turn that imagination into reality. I would like to add one thing to the Policy Chief's last sentence: that executive ability is needed not only in policy but also in those of us who read the market.
※ Kim Hak-ryul, head of the Smart Tube Real Estate Research Institute, well-known by the pen name 'Pashong,' served as a team leader at the Real Estate Research Division of Gallup Korea. He operates and hosts the Naver blog 'Pashong's World Exploration' and the YouTube channel 'StuTV.' He is the author of '3040 Real Estate Beginners' First Investment (2026),' 'Rewriting the Korean Real Estate User Manual (2025),' 'The Power of Gyeonggi Real Estate (2024),' 'Absolute Principles of Seoul Real Estate (2023),' 'The Future of Incheon Real Estate (2022),' 'Kim Hak-ryul's Absolute Principles of Real Estate Investment (2022),' 'Future Map of Korean Real Estate (2021),' and 'From Now On, Only Places That Will Rise, Rise (2020).'