[비즈한국] Jeonse and monthly rental listings have vanished. It’s not just that the number of properties on the market has decreased; they have structurally disappeared. Since the rental business registration system wavered, the momentum for rental supply has weakened, the heavy taxation on capital gains for multi-homeowners remains in place, and the blade of the comprehensive real estate tax shows no sign of dulling.
From the landlord's perspective, the motivation to offer jeonse (lump-sum deposit) has evaporated, and the trend of passing the burden of holding taxes onto monthly rent has now become a market constant. The conversion of jeonse to monthly rent and the steep rise in monthly rents—this is the bare face of the South Korean rental market in the spring of 2026.
The problem does not stop here. The government's policy direction is becoming even clearer. Additional regulations covering loans, taxes, and general transaction conditions are expected for regulated areas. It is highly likely that the gates applied to Seoul's core districts and some key regions in the metropolitan area will be locked even tighter.
Everything from further tightening of LTV and DSR to the expansion of land transaction permit zones, strict scrutiny of financing plans, and additional taxation for multi-homeowners is already on the table. The fact that a series of policy inflection points are waiting—such as the end of the temporary exemption for capital gains tax heavy taxation on multi-homeowners on May 9, and the base date for holding tax assessment on June 1—is further heightening market tension.
Demand does not disappear, it just shifts its flow
The market moves mechanically. Just because regulations get tougher doesn't mean people stop buying homes or that the demand for places to live disappears. Demand does not disappear; it only changes where it goes. Demand blocked in regulated areas flows into non-regulated areas. This is not a hypothesis, but a rule that the Korean real estate policy cycle has proven every time over the past 20 years.
Every regulation—including those on August 31, November 3, August 2, September 13, December 16, June 17, and July 10—eventually pushed up prices in non-regulated areas after a time lag. Policymakers are well aware of this. The fact that they know this yet cannot stop the flow is the essence of the Korean real estate market.
The situation isn't different just because an area is non-regulated. Non-regulated areas also lack jeonse and monthly rental listings. The contraction in rental supply is a nationwide phenomenon unrelated to whether an area is regulated. Ultimately, demand flowing into non-regulated areas cannot find answers in the rental market either. If there are no rental listings, the market converges to one option: buying. Where jeonse has vanished and monthly rent has become too expensive, people's decision-making shifts toward the logic that if you have to pay a deposit and live somewhere for life, it is more rational to just buy it.
This flow has already begun. Statistics from KB Real Estate and the Korea Real Estate Board show that trading volumes in key non-regulated areas of the Seoul metropolitan region have seen a meaningful rebound since the second half of last year. The number of regions where weekly sales price fluctuations have consistently turned positive is also increasing. Before sales prices move, jeonse prices move first, and once jeonse prices move, sales prices follow. The oldest rule of the Korean real estate market is once again in operation.
Not everything in non-regulated areas rises
Here I deliver the most important message. The prospect that demand will flock to non-regulated areas should not lead to the conclusion that “everything in non-regulated areas will rise.” That is the most dangerous misreading.
Let's look at the essence of non-regulated areas coolly. The reason the government has kept regulations loose is clear: they judged that there is not enough room for price increases. Most non-regulated areas are places where the local population is shrinking, the industrial base is weak, or transportation infrastructure is lacking. In other words, many non-regulated areas cannot generate strong buying demand on their own.
Then, which non-regulated areas can rise? The answer is simple: places that can attract external demand even if local demand is insufficient. External demand ultimately means Seoul. More precisely, it means Seoul's core jobs. Gangnam, Yeouido, Gwanghwamun, Pangyo, Magok, and the Gasan/Guro Digital Complexes. Only non-regulated areas that can reach these job hubs within 60 minutes are significant.
One more thing must be added. Being able to commute is not enough. People want infrastructure that fills their lives between home and work. Schools, private academies, hospitals, supermarkets, department stores, parks, libraries, cafes, and restaurants. If this daily infrastructure is poor, people do not settle in that city. A city that remains a bedroom community where people just sleep and leave has clear limits to price appreciation. Convenience of commuting, lifestyle infrastructure, educational environment, commercial districts, and the humanistic status of the city—only non-regulated core locations that possess all five are the real deal.
Where are the places that pass this test? You should now look closely at the following six regions.
First, Hwaseong. Hwaseong is not just an 'outskirt of southern Gyeonggi.' It sits in the middle of a massive semiconductor megacluster that connects the Samsung Semiconductor Cluster, the R&D hubs of Hyundai Motor 005380 and Kia 000270, and extends to Yongin and Pyeongtaek. Beyond Dongtan to Bongdam, Hyangnam, and the newly emerging Manse-gu area, Hwaseong is a rare non-regulated city where jobs are moving into the city itself. It is strong on its own demand. In addition, it secures accessibility to Seoul's Gangnam area via SRT and GTX-A. It is one of the few cases in Korea that possesses both domestic and external demand.
Second, Goyang Deokyang-gu. With the arrival of the GTX-A Changneung Station, it is directly adjacent to Eunpyeong-gu, and lines 6, 3, and the Gyeongui-Jungang line are interconnected. There are few non-regulated candidates that can surpass Deokyang-gu in terms of actual residential accessibility to downtown Seoul. The line that connects Hyangdong, Wonheung, Samsong, Jichuk, and the 3rd new city of Changneung is essentially a natural expansion of the northwestern Seoul area.
Third, Guri. The extension of the Line 8 Byeollae Line has dramatically shortened travel time to Jamsil. Guri is the eastern gateway to the core job hubs of Gangnam. It features a natural environment of the Han River and Achasan Mountain, and well-maintained commercial districts in Galmae, Inchang, and Gyomun-dong. While the population size is small, the quality of the location is by no means small. The smaller the city, the more the scarcity of core locations stands out.
Fourth, Namyangju. From Dasan and Byeollae to Jinjeop and Hwado, it is a rare region with a concentration of metropolitan transport developments, including the Line 8 Byeollae Line, the Line 9 extension, and the GTX-B, all arriving at once. However, Namyangju shows extreme differentiation by region. One must focus strictly on the core locations of Dasan and Byeollae. As you move to the outskirts, the merit of commuting to Seoul disappears quickly. Even within the same administrative district of Namyangju, the destiny of prices varies.
Fifth, Uijeongbu. With Line 1, the Line 7 extension (Jangam~Tapseok), and the GTX-C, Uijeongbu is the final non-regulated gateway to the northeastern Seoul area. Urban renewal projects around Uijeongbu Station are moving simultaneously. It is a structure where demand that cannot bear the price burden of Nowon and Dobong will naturally flow down into Uijeongbu.
Sixth, Bucheon. Bucheon, where the GTX-B, Line 7, and Line 1 all pass through, is effectively the southwestern area of Seoul itself. With the well-maintained infrastructure of Jung-dong and Sang-dong, the commercial areas around Bucheon and Songnae Stations, and urban renewal projects in the Okgil and Yeokgok areas, the fact that it is situated between Seoul and Incheon is not a weakness but a strength. A location that can absorb jobs from both cities is itself Bucheon’s greatest asset.
Now is the time for decision
Regulated areas are facing even stronger regulations. Loans will be more restricted, taxes will become heavier, and transactions will become more difficult. And there are no listings in the rental market. These two conditions force the migration of demand to core non-regulated locations. Forced demand converts to buying, and conversion to buying pushes up prices. There are few periods when the market's operating principles are so clear.
You need to examine this starting now. If you wait until prices begin to move in earnest, it will already be too late. The market always moves faster than policy, and data arrives later than the market. When the public confirms the data and starts to move, those who judged quickly have already secured their positions. It has always been that way in the real estate market, and it will be that way in the future.
Hwaseong, Goyang Deokyang, Guri, Namyangju, Uijeongbu, and Bucheon. It is time to look deeply into the core locations of these six regions. Look not at the label 'non-regulated,' but at the essence of the location hidden behind that label. Jobs, transportation, infrastructure, education, commercial districts, and the city's status. Only places that pass all these conditions are the real deal. And surprisingly, there aren't many such places. Now is the time to secure your position.
※ Kim Hak-ryeol, the head of the Smart Tube Real Estate Research Institute known by the pen name Pasion, served as a team leader at the Real Estate Research Division of Gallup Korea. He operates and hosts the Naver blog 'Pasion’s World Exploration' and the YouTube channel 'Stew TV.' His books include '3040 Beginner's First Real Estate Investment (2026)', 'Rewriting the South Korean Real Estate User Manual (2025)', 'The Power of Gyeonggi Real Estate (2024)', 'The Absolute Principles of Seoul Real Estate (2023)', 'The Future of Incheon Real Estate (2022)', 'Kim Hak-ryeol's Absolute Principles of Real Estate Investment (2022)', 'The Future Map of South Korean Real Estate (2021)', and 'From Now On, Only Places That Will Rise Will Rise (2020)'.