[비즈한국] The KOSPI surpassed the 5,000-point mark at the start of trading on the 22nd. This is the first time since the index was first calculated in 1980. The index has maintained a sharp upward trend over the past few months, significantly exceeding initial forecasts for the year, and hit another milestone by crossing the 5,000 threshold today. Market observers are noting that this rally is unlikely to be just a short-term trend, while simultaneously emphasizing the need to monitor variables that will determine future performance.
Semiconductors, AI, and Capital Policy… Three Engines Running Simultaneously
The most direct driver of this KOSPI rally is the semiconductor sector. With the expansion of global artificial intelligence (AI) investment and a structural increase in memory demand, particularly for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the earnings outlook for domestic semiconductor companies has improved. Large-cap stocks such as Samsung Electronics005930 and SK hynix000660 have led the index's rise.
Unlike the past, when the semiconductor industry fluctuated violently based on price cycles, a key feature recently is that it is supported by relatively long-term demand from AI server and data center investments. The brokerage industry believes this structural shift has acted as a factor in upwardly adjusting the earnings outlook for the KOSPI as a whole.
Buying by foreign investors has also contributed to the index's rise. Amid the spread of expectations for global interest rate cuts and a recovery in risk appetite, capital inflows into the Korean stock market have continued. A characteristic of this foreign buying spree is that mid-to-long-term funds account for a relatively higher proportion compared to short-term arbitrage trading.
As the global competitiveness of Korean companies in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and defense becomes more prominent, analysts suggest that the Korean stock market is starting to be perceived not just as an undervalued market, but as a market worthy of inclusion in investment portfolios. This is a different trend from the past, when foreign capital would quickly exit based on exchange rates and global liquidity fluctuations.
Changes in corporate capital policies are also cited as one of the backdrops for this upward trend. As shareholder return policies, such as share buybacks, cancellations, and dividend increases, have gradually expanded, the discount factors for the Korean stock market have been partially mitigated. While not a catalyst that pushes the index up in the short term, it is evaluated as having contributed to restoring market confidence in the long run.
The Korean stock market has historically been evaluated at a low price relative to its earnings, but analysts say that recent years of discussions on institutional improvement and corporate responses have accumulated and begun to be reflected in valuations.
The Start of Resolving the 'Korea Discount' and Remaining Tasks
Following the breach of the KOSPI 5,000 mark, the market's key focus is shifting from whether it will rise further to whether this level can be sustained. Instead of concluding that the future will move in a single direction, brokerage firms are weighing three possibilities: a gentle rise supported by earnings, sideways or period-based adjustments due to level fatigue, and increased volatility due to external variables. In particular, the earnings trends of semiconductor and AI-related companies are considered the core variables that will determine the direction of the index.
In a positive scenario, continued earnings improvements by large semiconductor stocks could keep mid-to-long-term foreign and institutional funds in place, establishing the 5,000 level as the new floor. On the other hand, if profit-taking follows the sharp short-term rise, the index is more likely to undergo a correction closer to sideways movement rather than a sharp drop; in this process, differentiation between companies with proven earnings and those without is expected to become even more pronounced.
Factors that could increase volatility include shifts in global monetary policy and geopolitical risks. However, unlike in the past, the current market is considered more robust due to a stronger earnings foundation, so even if corrections occur, they are likely to remain within a limited range. Experts suggest that beyond the KOSPI 5,000 milestone, investors need to look at the market with a focus on corporate earnings and changes in industrial structure rather than the index itself.