[비즈한국] Looking at recent Korean economic indicators leaves one puzzled. Stock prices are surging, while the won-dollar exchange rate is rising alongside them. Interest rates remain stubbornly high. Typically, when the economy improves, stock prices rise while the won strengthens, but it is rare for all three to move in the same direction simultaneously. Therefore, the current situation is difficult to explain with simple 'economic recovery' formulas. It is closer to a transitional phase where anxieties accumulate atop a boom in specific industries, rather than a broad-based improvement across the economy. While the numbers clearly look good, it is necessary to examine the background that created them.
On the 16th, the government stated in its 'January Recent Economic Trends' report that "domestic demand, including consumption, is improving, and the trend of economic recovery is continuing due to strong semiconductor-led exports." Indeed, private consumption in the third quarter of last year grew 1.3% from the previous quarter, showing a meaningful increase for the first time in a while. Exports in December also recorded double-digit growth thanks to semiconductors, and the trade balance continued a surplus for 11 consecutive months. The number of employed people also increased by more than 160,000 compared to the previous year. Looking only at these indicators, an assessment that 'the bottom has been passed' is plausible.
However, it is necessary to separately consider whether these figures explain the entire atmosphere of the financial market. While consumption rebounded on a quarterly basis, the monthly trend remains erratic. In November last year, retail sales fell by more than 3% from the previous month, with all categories closely related to daily life declining. The government also views monthly volatility as significant due to base effects and long holidays. While there are signs that consumption is reviving, it is still cautious to call it a stable recovery.
This gap becomes even clearer when looking at the rise in stock prices. The center of recent KOSPI gains is not domestic demand recovery, but the semiconductor boom driven by AI expansion. As competition in generative AI has gone into full swing, global big tech companies have been expanding data centers and securing semiconductors even in a high-interest-rate environment. In other words, AI infrastructure demand is growing independently, somewhat detached from overall economic trends. In this process, demand for high-performance semiconductors like High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) has soared, and the benefits have been concentrated on large semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics005930 and SK Hynix00660. As the stock prices of these companies rose, they dragged the entire index up, creating an illusion as if the economy had improved across the board.
The exchange rate is another facet of this strange structure. The rise in the won-dollar exchange rate is not because the Korean economy has suddenly worsened, but rather due to external factors such as a strong dollar, geopolitical anxiety, and U.S. trade policies. The weakness of the won acts favorably for large semiconductor companies that generate revenue in dollars, supporting their stock prices. A peculiar situation has been created where the exchange rate is both a sign of instability and a boost for semiconductor stock prices. However, this effect is limited to a few companies. For domestic-oriented firms and consumers, a rising exchange rate translates into a burden of inflation.
Interest rates send another message. Current interest rate levels are not maintained because the economy is doing exceptionally well. Monetary authorities are prioritizing stability over growth. If interest rates are lowered, the exchange rate may rise further, which could stimulate inflation. Conversely, leaving rates as they are or raising them increases the burden on households and self-employed individuals. Ultimately, current interest rates are closer to a defensive choice to manage uncertainty rather than because the "economy is good."
In this process, the distance between the asset market and the real economy is widening. While the semiconductor and AI industries are at the center of global demand, the economy felt by many self-employed individuals, small and medium-sized enterprises, and households remains difficult. Employment indicators look good on the surface, but qualitative instability remains as the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate have both increased. Construction investment has recovered slightly, but it is difficult to expect a full-scale recovery in a situation where the number of unsold homes after completion exceeds 290,000.
It is not that the government's assessment and the market's analysis are completely at odds. Rather, they are viewing the same reality from different positions. The government emphasizes that the country has moved past the worst phase of the first half, while the market ponders how broad and lasting this recovery will be. The simultaneous rise in stocks, exchange rates, and interest rates is the result of both these perspectives being reflected at once.
Therefore, the keyword describing the current Korean economy is closer to 'asymmetric' than 'recovery.' Consumption shows signs of life but remains unstable, exports are skewed toward semiconductors, and employment and construction still harbor weak points. Stock prices are preemptively reflecting the AI semiconductor boom, but exchange rates and interest rates do not fully trust that optimism. This is why, although the numbers speak of recovery, the path ahead remains long and arduous.