[비즈한국] As the new year of 2026 began, news that sent shivers through global financial markets arrived. An unprecedented geopolitical event occurred on January 3, local time: the U.S. airstrike on Venezuela and the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Concerns spread rapidly that a "risk-off" phase could emerge, driving interest toward safe-haven assets.
However, the market’s reaction was swifter than expected. Even after news of the airstrike broke, the KOSPI surpassed the 4,400-point mark for the first time in history on the 5th, and global stock markets also entered an "event digestion" phase rather than succumbing to fear. This is because the market’s perspective on geopolitical shocks focused on numbers and structures rather than fear. Hana Securities assessed the situation, stating, "It is highly likely to remain an event-driven risk rather than a structural shock." The core rationale is that Venezuela's influence on the global crude oil market is limited.
Venezuela possesses some of the world's largest proven oil reserves. Because of this, news of military action in its capital, Caracas, easily translates into fears of a sharp rise in international oil prices. In fact, as geopolitical risks escalated, oil prices faced short-term upward pressure of 5–10%.
However, the analysis that the upward trend will not be prolonged is dominant. Lee Jae-man, a researcher at Hana Securities, explained, "Although Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves, its production has plummeted to one-third of its past peak of 3 million barrels due to long-term sanctions and aging infrastructure. As of the end of last year, exports stood at around 900,000 to 1 million barrels, occupying a negligible share of the global market."
More importantly, it is the structure of the current global crude oil market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the global oil market is in a state of oversupply, amounting to approximately 3.8 million barrels per day this year. Hana Securities forecasts that with the combination of OPEC+ supply adjustments and weakening demand due to delayed economic recovery in China, oil prices are likely to stabilize in a medium-term box range of $55 to $65 per barrel.
Considering that, to date, the oil storage facilities of the Venezuelan state-owned oil company (PDVSA) have not suffered direct damage, the recent rise in oil prices is likely a temporary reaction based on psychological factors rather than actual supply disruptions.
The flow of safe-haven assets is mixed. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $4,550 per ounce during trading on the 26th of last month before undergoing a correction. Immediately after this airstrike, demand for safe-haven assets flocked in, leading to an additional 1–2% rise, and there are even suggestions that it could break through the $4,500 mark again in the short term.
Researcher Lee predicted, "Historically, gold prices surged 10–20% during the 9/11 attacks or the Iraq War. In this case, preference for safe-haven assets is expected to strengthen, and upward pressure will likely persist." However, he also pointed out that excessive additional rallies might be limited unless a global economic downturn intensifies.
On the other hand, the dollar is expected to see increased volatility after a short-term strengthening. While geopolitical uncertainty stimulates demand for the dollar, in the medium term, increased U.S. fiscal burdens and diplomatic friction resulting from military action could act as factors for a weaker dollar. In fact, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has already fallen by about 9% last year, and the potential for additional interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains a pressure point.
The stock market is difficult to avoid volatility initially. During a military conflict, energy and defense sectors may show relative strength, but the overall market carries the potential for a 5–10% short-term correction. Nevertheless, historically, the S&P 500 index has recorded an average gain of 9.5% within a year following geopolitical shocks.
Researcher Lee analyzed, "The U.S. military action in Venezuela triggers a short-term risk-off sentiment, but Venezuela’s limited market influence and the global oversupply environment will mitigate the shock." Indeed, the fact that the KOSPI surged on this day shows that the market judged this situation as a short-term event rather than a structural crisis.
Ultimately, the Venezuela situation is more likely to be a short-term event that heightened volatility rather than the first "Black Swan" for the 2026 financial market. What investors must guard against most is excessive panic selling triggered by geopolitical news. Experts advise that sections where corrections and rebounds intersect, as they do now, can actually serve as opportunities to selectively accumulate quality assets.
The key variable that will determine the future direction of the market is the regime transition and political stability within Venezuela. The investment formula of turning volatility into profit remains valid.