[비즈한국] "How was the exchange rate today?" More and more young investors are checking the won-dollar exchange rate every day. Is it for an overseas trip? The answer is "no." The reason they give is, "I receive my salary in won, but I invest in dollars." What they check on their way to work is not the Bank of Korea's base interest rate, but the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield chart. They are indifferent to the schedule of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Committee, but they are keenly focused on the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Controversy has recently erupted surrounding this investment trend. Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong mentioned 'Seohak Ants,' or individual investors venturing into overseas markets, as one of the backgrounds for the high exchange rate. His point was that the movement of individuals selling won and buying dollar-denominated assets is fueling the rise in exchange rates. However, the market's reaction was cold.
Criticism poured in that it is shifting the blame onto individuals' rational asset choices while ignoring the fact that the structural causes of the high exchange rate lie in the interest rate gap between the U.S. and Korea, current account trends, and the global strength of the dollar.
From the perspective of 2030 investors, labeling the result of turning to global assets—after concerns about the returns and growth potential of domestic assets—as the "culprit of the exchange rate" is unconvincing. Rather, it shows the reality that today's young investors evaluate assets based on profit and risk, not national borders. To them, investing in global assets is not a matter of patriotism, but the most realistic strategy to respond to global variables like interest rates and currencies.
The reason U.S. Treasury bonds have quickly established themselves in the portfolios of the 2030 generation is that they are safe, offer profit opportunities based on interest rate trends, and allow investors to capture exchange rate effects as well. Individual investors approach this by buying U.S. Treasury bonds directly or through products that invest in them. The methods differ, but the essence is the same.
U.S. Treasury bonds are effectively considered "risk-free assets" in the global financial market. This is why funds flock to them during every financial crisis. Unlike stocks, they do not fluctuate wildly based on corporate earnings or industry trends. For investors weary of volatility, they act as a counterweight in a portfolio.
Also, bond prices and interest rates move in opposite directions. High interest rates mean that bond prices have already fallen significantly. If you buy bonds during this period, you can expect not only interest income but also capital gains from bond price appreciation if interest rates fall in the future. This is why the phrase "now is the time to buy bonds" is repeated.
Along with this, one can enjoy "currency-tech" effects. The moment you invest in U.S. Treasury bonds, you naturally hold dollar assets. In a period of a strong dollar, even if bond prices do not move, exchange rate gains can occur. Especially in times sensitive to won volatility, U.S. Treasury bonds act as "defensive dollar assets." The ability to aim for three targets simultaneously—profit, stability, and exchange rates—makes them an attractive option for investors.
The 2030 generation does not limit itself to the domestic market. More and more people are looking at the flow of global assets rather than low economic growth and the recurring circulation of thematic stocks. It is the central axis of global finance that influences stocks, real estate, and even emerging market assets.
The information gap has also almost disappeared. Through YouTube and overseas news apps, they access remarks by Fed officials and interpretations of CPI and employment data in real time. It is no longer an "area known only to experts" as it was in the past. What matters is not the amount of information, but the speed at which it is interpreted and put into action.
However, since investing in interest rates is not easy, a few principles are essential. First, one must buy in installments. It is difficult to determine the direction of interest rates in the short term. A strategy of dividing your entry over time is more important than being confident in a "peak." By diversifying your entry points, you can utilize interest rate volatility itself.
A choice regarding the exchange rate is also necessary. If you want to capture the gains from a strong dollar, a currency-exposed strategy is suitable. Conversely, if currency volatility is a burden, you can focus on interest income in a way that minimizes exchange rate impact.
Finally, a balanced perspective on the possibility of a Fed pivot is needed. If interest rate cuts become a reality, bond prices are highly likely to rise. However, at the same time, risks such as a weaker dollar, the reignition of inflation, and policy delays also exist. Investing by trusting only one direction is always dangerous.
Just because you are a salary earner does not mean you have to distance yourself from interest rates. In fact, the 2030 generation of today is looking at interest rates in the most realistic way possible. They are neither speculative nor reckless. They are simply a generation that understands the language of global finance and allocates assets using that language.