[비즈한국] Recently, the flow of global capital has been diverging. On one side, artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor companies are attracting massive capital, leading the largest investments in history, while on the other, virtual assets are struggling through a correction phase following their halving.
According to Woori Bank, the capital expenditure (CAPEX) of the 'Big 5' companies leading AI investment (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle) is expected to expand from $366.6 billion (542 trillion won) last year to the $500 billion (738 trillion won) level next year. This represents a 36% increase compared to this year, and the investment amount for next year is equivalent to South Korea's entire annual government budget. Companies are continuing aggressive investments across the entire AI ecosystem, including securing GPUs, expanding power grids, and increasing data centers. Investment in AI has now become an essential growth engine rather than a selective investment dependent on the business cycle.
This massive investment trend is naturally acting as a headwind for the virtual asset market. The background of the recent weakness in virtual assets is not due to technical flaws or regulatory shocks. Yang Hyun-kyung, a researcher at iM Securities, stated, "Up until September of this year, the virtual asset market formed an upward structure due to the Bitcoin halving effect, President Trump's pro-virtual asset policies, active buying by Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies, and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts," adding, "Recently, these five pillars have begun to face restrictions, strengthening downward pressure."
The macroeconomic liquidity environment has also acted as a negative factor. With the U.S. federal government shutdown, the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance surged to $940 billion (1,387 trillion won), rapidly absorbing short-term liquidity. Furthermore, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of an interest rate cut in December plummeted from 98.9% to 33.7% in just one month. The dollar immediately turned strong, which increased selling pressure on risk assets overall. Bitcoin, altcoins, and other assets that move more based on expectations or sentiment than objective figures like earnings were the first to face downward pressure.
Amidst this flow, a symbolic case showing the change in investment sentiment has emerged. Robert Kiyosaki, author of the bestseller 'Rich Dad Poor Dad,' recently sold some of his Bitcoin to invest in real assets that generate cash flow. The fact that this long-term Bitcoin bull chose 'cash flow first' in the short term clearly demonstrates that the move to secure liquidity is strengthening across the market.
On the other hand, AI infrastructure investment is not just a corporate strategy, but carries the nature of a national strategy. Policies are involved in everything from expanding power grids and permitting data centers to reorganizing the GPU supply chain. From an investor's perspective, pouring capital into the AI sector, which is racing toward certain growth, has become a more natural choice than coins, which carry high uncertainty. Ahn Ki-tae, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, forecasted, "The current proportion of AI-related investment in U.S. GDP is 1.5%, which is closer to the 1995-1996 level than the year 2000 when we faced excessive IT investment, and since the maturity of high-yield bonds is concentrated around 2028, AI-led growth will continue next year as well."
That does not mean the structural appeal of virtual assets has weakened. Researcher Yang Hyun-kyung said, "Bitcoin is a powerful investment point in that it is free from the control or censorship of specific countries and can act as a hedge against inflation through its predictable supply."
In particular, the possibility that U.S. regulatory uncertainty regarding virtual assets could be resolved toward the end of the year is a variable.
Hong Sung-wook, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, predicted, "Although the current phase is a 'lean season,' the atmosphere will reverse if the possibility of the U.S. passing the CLARITY Act (Market Structure Bill) gains traction at the end of the year or the beginning of next."
While the Biden administration attempted to treat most virtual assets as 'securities,' if the CLARITY Act is passed, virtual assets that meet the requirements will be excluded from the scope of securities laws, providing relief for business development.
Ultimately, the emergence of a massive investment destination called AI has reorganized the priorities of global capital, but the potential of virtual assets has not disappeared. There is sufficient possibility that opportunities will open up again at the end of this volatility. What is important is to pay attention to how virtual assets will return from the shadows of the AI craze.