[비즈한국] With the KOSPI reaching the 4,000 mark for the first time in history, many individual investors are still hesitant to buy stocks, saying, "It has risen too much." However, the diagnostic from the securities industry is slightly different. They argue that it is not that the market has risen too much, but rather that it is finally in the process of finding its rightful place. Amid structural changes led by artificial intelligence (AI) and shareholder returns, the market remains hungry, but it is also a time to consider the "balance of speed."
The KOSPI has surged by a staggering 70% or more this year. Although this is considered an overwhelming rate of increase among the world's major stock markets, experts unanimously agree that "it is too early to conclude that it is overheated."
Park Sang-hyun, a researcher at iM Securities, assessed, "If you compare the KOSPI's rise with that of other major global markets since the end of 2022, when the index underwent a correction, the domestic KOSPI's rise is either at or slightly below the average compared to other major markets." This means the rally this year is not a simple bubble, but a recovery from undervaluation.
Kim Jae-seung, a researcher at Hyundai Motor Securities001500, diagnosed, "The KOSPI's 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is 11.6 times, which is above the 20-year average of 10 times, but it is still low compared to the bull market of 2021 or 2023," adding, "Despite the short-term surge, the valuation burden is not significant."
In other words, the current controversy over a market peak is merely a matter of psychological fatigue, and there is no significant burden on fundamentals.
The primary force driving the stock market is, by far, 'AI'. Researcher Park analyzed, "We have moved past the phase where a few big-tech companies monopolized the benefits of the early AI cycle and are now entering a phase of expanding AI investment cycles and mass adoption, which is causing the 'trickle-down effect' of the AI cycle to materialize in earnest."
The 'first AI rally,' centered on US tech stocks like NVIDIA, has ended, and a 'second rally' is now beginning, spreading to the entire AI infrastructure supply chain. This is similar to the spread of the internet in the early 2000s.
Researcher Kim predicted, "In the era of AI, as governments and tech companies around the world are competitively investing, the environment will remain favorable for the Korean semiconductor industry."
As long as the "favorable environment" for companies supplying AI infrastructure continues, Korean semiconductors will remain in a strong position. In particular, some analysts note that because foreign investors tend to buy into the Korean market based on the performance of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, it is highly likely that foreign capital inflow will remain friendly as long as global AI investment continues.
Another pillar driving this rally is 'policy.' The Lee Jae-myung administration is pushing for policies to increase corporate governance transparency and expand dividend payout ratios through the revision of the Commercial Act and tax reforms.
Researcher Kim forecasted, "The goal is to improve capital efficiency by enhancing corporate management transparency and governance, thereby increasing return on equity (ROE) and improving dividend payout ratios," adding, "Increased shareholder returns from KOSPI-listed companies will improve ROE and further enhance valuation appeal."
In fact, since 2014, Japan has significantly boosted the ROE of the TOPIX index by expanding corporate dividends and share buybacks through governance reforms. South Korea is following the same path. The analysis suggests that the Korean stock market, which had been undervalued due to 'low ROE' and 'opaque governance,' is now beginning to look attractive to global investors again through improvements in its fundamentals. In other words, it is not just 'AI expectations' that have begun, but a structural re-rating.
However, short-term signs of overheating cannot be completely ignored. While liquidity is abundant, the pace of interest rate cuts is limited, and a 'slowdown in speed' is inevitable next year. The strategy needed now is not "all-in," but rather split buying. It is reasonable to take an approach of entering with fixed amounts whenever a correction occurs. Portfolios can be optimized by focusing on sectors where both earnings and policies are improving, thereby minimizing risk.
The KOSPI, having surpassed 4,000, will likely enter an era of balance after a short-term adjustment, but that balance is not a limit to growth, but another name for sustainable upward momentum. This is why when asked, "When is the right time to buy?", experts answer, "Right now."