[비즈한국] Semiconductor stocks have been the standout sector in the domestic stock market this month. It is no exaggeration to say that between the 1st and the 19th, as the KOSPI rose from the 3,100 to the 3,400 range, the two largest stocks by market capitalization—Samsung Electronics005930 and SK Hynix000660—were responsible for more than half of the index's gains.
However, the moves of retail investors were different. While foreign and institutional investors were buying up Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix this month, retail investors were instead selling these stocks and net purchasing 429.3 billion won worth of the inverse ETF, 'KODEX 200 Futures Inverse 2X.' They chose a cautious approach, betting on a decline. This contrasting behavior raises the question of whether now is the right time to invest in semiconductor stocks, or what strategy those who already hold them should take.
Samsung Electronics reclaimed the "80,000 won" level for the first time in about a year. Although it fell back to the 70,000 won range one day after closing at 80,500 won on the 18th, this is viewed as profit-taking following a short-term surge.
Market analysts remain optimistic. Observations suggest that next year's operating profit could reach the 50 trillion won range, and an increasing number of brokerage firms are setting a target price of 110,000 won. Analysts argue that given the recovery in the industry and expectations of US interest rate cuts, the stock's long-term investment appeal remains valid.
SK Hynix's stock price rose even more sharply. It jumped over 30% this month alone, more than doubling the gain of Samsung Electronics over the same period. The background to this is the explosive growth in demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) used in AI servers. However, there is some pressure to take profits following the short-term spike.
Lee Min-hee, a researcher at BNK Securities, said, "While SK Hynix's stock price has reached last year's peak, providing a pretext for a short-term correction, profitability is improving, and its competitive edge in HBM is set to remain clear next year, making a re-rating of the stock price highly likely."
There was another major piece of news in the global semiconductor industry. Nvidia invested $5 billion to acquire a 4% stake in the financially struggling Intel and began collaborating on the joint development of custom CPUs and GPUs. The two companies announced that they would produce chips for data centers and PCs by connecting Intel's CPUs and Nvidia's GPUs using NVLink, Nvidia's proprietary technology. However, this collaboration did not include the foundry contract that the market had been paying attention to. Nvidia still relies on TSMC for chip production.
Ryu Young-ho, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, assessed that "the short-term impact of this collaboration is limited." This is because time is required until the joint product launch, and the use of Intel's foundry was excluded from the collaboration. Researcher Ryu added, "The possibility that Nvidia might use Intel's foundry in the future exists, but a successful transition to the 18A process is required first."
So, how should investors respond? For Samsung Electronics, while there is the burden of a short-term peak, it is reasonable to believe in the long-term story and hold the stock, as befits a "people's stock." However, for investors looking to buy, it is advisable to wait for a correction period.
In the case of SK Hynix, although volatility is high following the short-term surge, the structural momentum of expanding AI data center demand is strong. It is wise to secure some profits while maintaining a core position.
For semiconductor equipment stocks, there could be opportunities for investors seeking short-term alpha. Equipment stocks are the first sector to react when global collaboration issues arise. However, since they tend to undergo rapid corrections after surging due to events, it is safer to approach them from a short-term trading perspective.
Utilizing semiconductor-related ETFs is another method. This allows investors to enjoy the benefits of an industry improvement while reducing the volatility of individual stocks.
Ultimately, while semiconductor stocks may see corrections due to short-term profit-taking, the broader trend of the industry is unlikely to change. This is because the AI era will inevitably lead to exponential growth in demand for semiconductors.
What investors need is timing and portfolio weighting. The growth expectations are too great to simply watch the rise of semiconductor stocks, yet the risks are too high to blindly chase a short-term surge. Investors should establish a long-term strategy while diversifying their investments and adjusting their weightings to prepare for short-term volatility.