[비즈한국] The Personal Information Protection Commission (PIPC) has imposed a record-high fine on SK Telecom017670. This measure follows a recent USIM hacking incident that resulted in the leakage of personal information for 23 million people. After deliberating the matter at a closed-door plenary meeting on the 27th, the PIPC announced on the 28th that it would impose a fine of 134.791 billion won and an additional penalty of 9.6 million won on SK Telecom. This is the largest sanction issued since the PIPC was established in 2020.
However, the market's reaction was calmer than expected. Some had anticipated that the fine could reach between 300 billion and 540 billion won. Because the finalized amount was significantly lower, there was no immediate major shock to the stock price.
Kim Jun-seop, a researcher at KB Securities, analyzed, "The finalization of a 134.8 billion won fine is low compared to various expectations, which has partially eased concerns. This is because there were fears that an excessive fine could impact SK Telecom's dividend policy."
Immediately after the fine announcement on the 28th, SK Telecom's stock price fell by only 0.9%, and while it dropped another 1.29% the following day, the expectation that the 'dividend stock premium' will remain intact appears to persist.
Telecom stocks are considered classic dividend stocks. Thanks to a consistent dividend payout ratio based on stable cash flow, investor interest rises as the year-end dividend season approaches. So, could this fine shake up SK Telecom’s dividend policy?
Experts generally agree that the possibility of a dividend cut is low. SK Telecom has maintained a policy of paying out over 50% of its consolidated adjusted net income as dividends.
Kim Jung-chan, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, explained, "If we adjust for non-recurring items related to this year's data leak—such as customer appreciation packages, fines, and exemption of breach-of-contract penalties—amounting to at least 800 billion won, a cash dividend of 764 billion won is not unreasonable. Therefore, it is difficult to use this year's earnings decline as a justification for cutting dividends."
Kim Hong-sik, a researcher at Hana Securities, also forecast, "Since dividend payments are based on consolidated net income excluding one-time costs, the justification for a dividend reduction due to this hacking incident is weak, and shareholders are currently strongly opposed to such a move. It is highly likely that the dividend per share (DPS) for the third quarter, to be announced in October, will be maintained at 830 won."
As important as dividend stability is the fundamental of the core wireless business. Recently, the number of mobile number portability cases for the three major telecom companies has not exceeded a daily average of 20,000 this month. This means that a stable subscriber base is being maintained without excessive churn. Additionally, while there were concerns that the repeal of the Mobile Device Distribution Improvement Act combined with new handset releases could lead to overheated subsidy competition, the prevailing analysis is that significant subsidy spending or increases in marketing costs remain limited so far. In other words, this is evidence that SK Telecom's core business competitiveness has not been significantly shaken despite short-term negative factors.
Of course, a decline in short-term performance is inevitable. SK Telecom's second-quarter consolidated revenue fell 1.9% year-on-year to 4.3388 trillion won, and operating profit decreased by 37.1% over the same period to 338.3 billion won. Following the hacking incident, foreign investors net sold approximately 611 billion won worth of shares between April 22 and 29. For the time being, poor earnings and foreign capital outflows could weigh down the stock price.
However, the long-term outlook is positive. Experts expect the three major telecom companies to show weak earnings in the third quarter as well, but they believe SK Telecom will have the most distinct profit growth from next year onward. Researcher Kim Hong-sik predicted, "In terms of long-term shareholder return value, SK Telecom is the only one among the three companies that is currently undervalued. With various negative factors scattered about, if they turn out to be mere worries, a stock price normalization process will unfold." The assessment is that since the short-term uncertainty is already priced in, there is sufficient room for a stock price recovery if dividend stability and earnings normalization align.
From an investor's perspective, this fine can be viewed as "the negative news has been realized." With the uncertainty removed, it is time to turn eyes toward earnings normalization and dividend stability. Telecom stocks, in particular, are one of the few sectors that can provide stable dividend income. If SK Telecom overcomes this crisis, a long-term holding strategy still appears valid.