[비즈한국] As the United States launched direct strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran played its card: a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, global financial markets are showing signs of volatility once again. Market forecasts have even surfaced suggesting that international oil prices, currently in the high $70s per barrel, could soar to $130.
In the early stages of the Israel-Iran war, the market remained surprisingly calm. Even when military clashes between Israel and Iran intensified, oil prices only saw a temporary rebound, and the stock market held its ground. However, this direct military intervention by the U.S. is on a different scale. Typically, the point at which oil prices become a significant burden on the stock market is when they exceed $90 or rise more than 50% year-on-year; in a climate where geopolitical risks are escalating like this, investors are inevitably sensitive.
The Iranian parliament voted on the 22nd (local time) to blockade the Strait of Hormuz as a retaliatory measure against the U.S. bombing of its nuclear facilities. Effectively, only the final decision remains.
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and is a primary transport route for crude oil and gas from Gulf producers, Iran, and Iraq. The strait is narrow, and since most of the shipping lanes fall within Iranian territorial waters, a blockade is practically feasible if Iran chooses to pursue it. About 20% of the world's seaborne crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) traffic passes through this waterway, with 85% of that volume destined for Asia.
Choi Jin-young, an analyst at Daishin Securities 003540, said, "If the area is blockaded by Iran, transport disruptions for Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar are inevitable," adding, "If crude oil exports accounting for at least 7-10% of global supply are restricted, oil prices could immediately break through the $85 per barrel mark."
In reality, if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, soaring international oil prices are expected to deal a major blow to the global economy. A spike in oil prices is likely to lead to global inflation concerns and the potential for continued tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve. However, experts view the possibility of long-term high oil prices as low. Even if Iran weaponizes energy, losing its sales outlets would deal a fatal blow to its own finances and supply chains.
Analyst Choi stated, "Even if Iran proceeds with a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the possibility of a long-term blockade is limited," adding, "It is nonsensical for a nation at war to cut off its own financial resources (energy sales) and supply lines."
During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, passage through the Strait of Hormuz was threatened by attacks on tankers and merchant ships and the laying of sea mines, but Iran never imposed a total blockade. Furthermore, many of Iran's "allies," such as China, Iraq, and Qatar, rely on this strait, making it a heavy burden for Iran as well. This is why U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to intervene diplomatically.
In particular, with few forces willing to actively support Iran, some predict that if the war becomes prolonged—similar to the Russia-Ukraine war—the likelihood of high oil prices becoming entrenched is low.
The market also perceives this situation more as a short-term variable rather than a mid-to-long-term trend. In the domestic stock market, defense and oil/chemical stocks saw short-term spikes due to Middle East risks, but the prevailing view is that supply and demand will eventually return to their original state.
Han Seung-jae, an analyst at DB Financial Investment 001660, remarked, "Whenever war issues arise, we look back at historical cases, and the conclusion is always the same," adding, "Volatility is short-lived, and it eventually reverts to previous supply and demand conditions." Analyst Han also noted, "While uncertainty is growing uncontrollably, rather than betting on the extremes, it is necessary to keep in mind that concerns over slowing economic demand and oversupply due to OPEC production increases were already mounting even before the war."
Ultimately, if oil prices actually cross the $90 threshold, short-term responses through commodity ETFs or related stock groups could be considered. However, one should avoid "chasing short-term themes" by expanding positions based solely on news. This is because volatility can be temporary, and the price may have already reflected the event. One must also judge how rising oil prices will affect interest rates and exchange rates. If rising oil prices fuel inflation again and delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule, downward pressure on technology-centered growth stocks could intensify. In such a case, focusing on defensive sectors could be helpful.
Another variable is the KRW/USD exchange rate and foreign capital flow. If the dollar strengthens due to concerns over a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the won could face renewed downward pressure. In particular, if the exchange rate approaches the 1,400 won level, there is a possibility that foreign investors could shift to selling.
Reflecting on past Middle East wars, while war issues deliver a strong short-term shock, the market eventually returns to its fundamental benchmarks: corporate earnings and economic trends. Now is the time for a strategy that maintains its center amidst the instability.