[비즈한국] Since the 21st presidential election held on the 3rd, the KOSPI has been continuing a "honeymoon rally" day after day. On the 4th, the first day of President Lee Jae-myung's term, the KOSPI closed at 2770.84, up 71.87 points (2.66%) from the previous trading day. It broke through the 2800 mark the following day on the 5th, and rose to as high as 2863.19 during intraday trading on the 9th, marking three consecutive days of gains. It is the first time in about 11 months, since July 17 of last year (2868.58), that the KOSPI has surpassed the 2860 level during intraday trading.
The background of this rally includes the strength of semiconductor stocks due to expectations for U.S.-China negotiations and the rise of financial stocks, which reflect expectations for the advancement of the capital market. Policy-beneficiary stocks such as construction and holding companies also saw their share prices rise.
In particular, foreigners net purchased over 2 trillion won in the securities market over the three trading days from the 4th to the 9th. During this period, foreigners led the bull market by focusing their purchases on SK Hynix000660 (639.1 billion won) and Samsung Electronics005930 (424 billion won).
The domestic stock market's continuous strength is thanks to expectations for the new government, namely the expectation for a supplementary budget and the resolution of policy uncertainty. Among investors, concerns such as "Should I sell now?" and "How much will the KOSPI rise?" are being shared. Some are even expressing anxiety about the long-awaited bull market.
However, experts believe that the KOSPI's upward trend will continue for the time being. Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, predicted, "The KOSPI will emerge from its undervalued territory and enter the 3000 era just through valuation normalization." Heo Jae-hwan, a researcher at Eugene Investment & Securities, said, "The current KOSPI has risen 23% from the bottom," adding, "While momentum may soften somewhat, we need to keep the possibility of the KOSPI rising to the 2900-point range open." Park Seok-jung, a research fellow at Shinhan Securities, pointed out, "The launch of President Lee Jae-myung's new government is acting as a positive factor for the domestic stock market," and "Although valuation re-evaluation is at the center rather than expectations for profit growth, the fact that buying by foreigners, institutions, and individuals is occurring together is an encouraging change."
The fact that the government was launched amid a political landscape where the ruling party holds a majority (surpassing the opposition) is also acting positively. Kang Jin-hyeok, a researcher at Shinhan Securities, predicted, "The situation where the ruling party has a majority means the government can smoothly decide on policies with the backing of the National Assembly, making it an easy time for government-led industrial structural transformation," and "In terms of the stock market, the dynamism of the market can appear as beneficiary sectors are formed according to the momentum of policy implementation and establish themselves as leading stocks."
Along with representative domestic demand stocks, holding company stocks are receiving attention as sectors benefiting from the new government's policies. Recently, stocks related to holding companies have been showing strength, bolstered by policy expectations such as the revision of the Commercial Act and the mandatory cancellation of treasury stocks. In particular, expectations are growing even further as the Commercial Act amendment, which President Lee promised to push forward rapidly before his election, is expected to be processed at the National Assembly plenary session on the 12th.
Yang Ji-hwan, a researcher at Daishin Securities, diagnosed, "Holding company stocks all showed an upward trend immediately after President Lee's election was confirmed," and "As the proportion of holding companies in institutional investors' portfolios is very low, the phenomenon of concentration of supply and demand also played a large role." Researcher Yang also predicted, "If the valuation re-rating factors continue, holding company stock prices are highly likely to continue their collective upward flow in the future, but once expectations disappear, a phase of separating the wheat from the chaff will eventually unfold."
The possibility of differentiation by stock is also being raised, centering on stocks where governance issues have been highlighted, such as CJ001040 and LS006260. Eun Kyung-wan, a research fellow at Shinhan Securities, stated, "As this is a matter on which the legislative and executive branches are speaking with one voice, it is reasonable for investors to respond with the possibility of an amendment in mind," and "This is a time that requires selective investment considering the business conditions of core businesses and whether they possess their own upward momentum, rather than indiscriminate chase buying."
However, risk management is also important as external variables still exist. Future U.S.-China relations, U.S. economic indicators, and policy changes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could have a significant impact on investor sentiment. For this reason, some are advising that investors should consider taking some profits during the short-term overheating phase while simultaneously employing a split-buying strategy centered on sectors expected to benefit from government policies.