[비즈한국] It is reported that Samsung Electronics005930 Chairman Lee Jae-yong recently emphasized at a seminar for Samsung executives that “Samsung is facing a life-or-death survival struggle” and that “management must engage in profound self-reflection.” It seems that this 'do-or-die' dilemma is not exclusive to Samsung.
The won-dollar exchange rate has remained stuck in the mid-1,400 won range in the first quarter of this year, reaching its highest level since the Asian financial crisis. The exchange rate surged to the mid-1,400 won range following the launch of the second Trump administration and the emergency martial law situation. This is the first time since the financial crisis that the exchange rate has stayed in the 1,400 won range for four consecutive months.
Experts predicted last year that the high exchange rate would persist for a significant period. However, they observed that the exchange rate would gradually stabilize once political uncertainty is resolved. This very week is a period with the potential for that political uncertainty to be cleared. Since the market dislikes 'uncertainty' most of all, if the uncertainty disappears this week and the stock market shows signs of a rebound, it would be advisable to invest in sectors that have experienced excessive declines and are undervalued.
There are many political and economic issues this week. First, the Constitutional Court is expected to deliver its ruling on the impeachment trial of President Yoon Suk Yeol. Legal circles expect the verdict to be delivered in the latter half of this week.
On May 14, 2004, the day of President Roh Moo-hyun's impeachment trial verdict, the domestic stock market plummeted, but on March 10, 2017, the market remained unaffected during the verdict for President Park Geun-hye. Attention is now focused on whether the domestic stock market will receive a positive boost from the resolution of political uncertainty this time. Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, expressed hope, stating, "If domestic political risks are resolved, foreign capital inflow will likely improve along with increased pressure for a stronger won." Lee further predicted, "With monetary and fiscal policies coming into play simultaneously, domestic consumer sentiment will also recover. If there is volatility in the KOSPI while verifying the results of major issues and events, it will be an opportunity to increase holdings."
Major countries' policy interest rates will also be decided this week. The Bank of Japan is set to decide on rates on the 19th, while the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will follow on the 20th. For the Bank of Japan, the prevailing view is that they will freeze rates to assess the effects of the previous hike and the Trump administration's tariff policies. The U.S. Fed is also expected to keep rates frozen at the current 4.25–4.50%. Kim Ji-na, a researcher at Eugene Investment & Securities, forecasted, "At a time when U.S. tariffs have just begun and even the outlines of reciprocal tariffs have not emerged, it is practically difficult to raise the dot plot. The Fed will likely repeat its existing stance, focus on heightening vigilance against inflation, and dampen market expectations for rate cuts."
Semiconductor-related stocks are also expected to draw attention due to the Nvidia conference. Already, semiconductor stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix00660 surged on the 17th on high expectations for Nvidia. Byun Jun-ho, a researcher at IBK Securities, said, "Since the second half of last year, foreigners have sold off mainly in the semiconductor sector, leading to a significant drop in stock prices and leaving them marginalized. Because the decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index in the U.S. market has been very steep, there is a high possibility of a sharp rebound in semiconductor stocks if the market recovers."
Nvidia is holding 'GTC 2025,' the world's largest AI developer conference, in San Jose, California, from the 17th to the 21st (local time). Nvidia announced that it would designate March 20th as 'Quantum Day' to present the current status and future strategies of quantum computing. In addition, various innovative technologies such as physical AI, represented by robots and autonomous vehicles, and Agentic AI, which autonomously performs complex tasks, will be discussed at the event. Cho Kyung-jin, a researcher at IBK Securities, commented, "As this event is the largest of the first half of the year related to quantum technology, it could directly affect the stock prices of companies related to CEO Jensen Huang's keynote speech and the latest technology announcements."
Shareholder meetings for major companies are also scheduled. Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor005380 will hold their meetings on the 19th and 20th, respectively. As each company increases communication with shareholders, attention is focused on the messages that corporate management will deliver. Researcher Byun Jun-ho predicted, "While there are high concerns about the weakening competitiveness of Samsung Electronics, the fact that the company is proceeding with treasury stock buybacks and cancellations, and that foreign KOSPI inflows since COVID-19 have moved very similarly to Samsung Electronics inflows, suggests that expectations for an increase in Samsung's stock price will also rise."