[BizHanKook] As of the end of October 2026, the region with the highest cumulative apartment price growth rate in the country this year is not Gangnam. It is Gwangmyeong, which has exceeded 23%. Yongin Suji surpassed 22%, Suwon Yeongtong broke through 20%, followed by Anyang Dongan and Seongnam Jungwon in the 19% range. Conversely, the cumulative growth for Gangnam-gu this year is effectively 0%—back to square one. The most expensive lesson the market taught us this year is that the neighborhoods where prices are high and the neighborhoods where prices are rising are different.
So, how will the map for the first half of 2027 be drawn? I am noting four names: Gyeonggi, Incheon, Sejong, and Busan. My basis is not hope or intuition, but a single formula that has been confirmed six times over this year.
The Formula—Jeonse is the First Draft of Sale Prices
The leading indicator with the highest reliability in this year’s market was not interest rates or sentiment indices, but jeonse prices. When jeonse prices soar, the gap (between sale and jeonse price) compresses, and once the gap compresses, it ignites an increase in sale prices. This sequence was confirmed six times during 2026 in Dongtan, Guri, Giheung, Osan, Cheoin, and Uiwang. In particular, Yongin Cheoin saw its sale price growth rate double just one week after appearing on the list of soaring jeonse prices, and Uiwang saw its growth amplitude expand from 0.03% to 0.55% in just two weeks.
The power of jeonse statistics lies in their purity. There is no speculative demand, no corporate loans, and no "parental handouts" in jeonse. It only reflects actual residential demand. Therefore, the increase in sale prices in areas where jeonse prices are rising is not a bubble but a precursor, and the jeonse list becomes the first draft of the sale price list half a year later. Forecasting the first half of 2027 is, in the end, a matter of reading where jeonse prices are currently swelling.
Gyeonggi—Two Engines: Salaries and Urban Renewal
Gyeonggi-do is not a forecast; it is an ongoing reality. In the last week of October, Dongtan at 0.98%, Byeongjeom at 0.92%, and Suwon Gwonseon at 0.88%. The southern Gyeonggi region is the only market this year where a growth rate nearing 1% per week has appeared in three locations simultaneously. What is noteworthy is the nature of this rise. KB Real Estate officially cited "increased purchase inquiries utilizing Samsung Electronics’ corporate loans" as the reason for the rise in Dongtan, and "demand from semiconductor conglomerate employees" for Suwon Paldal. In a market where statistical agencies explicitly name specific companies and loan types, liquidity outside of DSR (Debt Service Ratio) is at work. A market that rises because interest rates are falling ends when interest rates become blocked, but a market driven by salaries only ends when employment collapses. Employment and salaries in the semiconductor belt will remain the firmest demand base for the market in 2027.
The second engine is the urban renewal projects of the first-generation new towns. Gunpo Sanbon, Seongnam Bundang, Anyang Pyeongchon, and Bucheon Jung-dong are showing upward trends by zone in accordance with their leading district project schedules, and Bundang even saw its jeonse growth expand to 0.39% entering October. On top of this, there is the rebound demand from the adjustment in Gangnam. The price adjustment in Gangnam this year due to tax regulations did not dissipate market energy but rather shifted it to southern Gyeonggi.
There is no reason to believe this composition will change during the first half of the year. However, one distinction must be made: not all of Gyeonggi is rising. Icheon and Anseong, which have accumulated supply, are experiencing simultaneous declines in both sales and jeonse prices despite having the same semiconductor tailwinds. The Gyeonggi of 2027 is the year of the “Semiconductor Belt and Urban Renewal Axis,” not the year of Gyeonggi as a whole.
Incheon—The Seventh Showing of a Movie We’ve Already Seen Six Times
Incheon’s sale market is still lukewarm. Weekly growth is 0.02–0.03%, with a cumulative 0.4% for the year. However, the jeonse map shows a completely different picture. The jeonse price growth rate in Incheon expanded for four consecutive weeks in October, rising from 0.08% to 0.15%, and reached 0.43% in Yeongjong. The cumulative jeonse rise in Yeonsu has surpassed 7%, bringing the jeonse-to-sale price ratio in Songdo toward a critical point, and Bupyeong has seen both sale and jeonse prices turn upward. The gap between a 0.4% cumulative sale increase and a 3.7% cumulative jeonse increase—this is exactly gap compression.
This is the exact same scene as the opening of the movie we watched six times from Dongtan to Uiwang. Jeonse swells first, the gap narrows, and at a certain point, the increase in sale prices begins in earnest. The fact that Incheon’s Buyer-Seller Index is as low as 28 is, paradoxically, positive. We have repeatedly seen scenes where prices turn around first in regions where the sentiment index is at its floor. In the first half of 2027, the candidate for the largest "perception shift" in the capital region is Incheon. In terms of sequence, Yeonsu and Bupyeong are leading the way.
Sejong—The Official Conclusion of a Three-Year Winter
Sejong stands at the most dramatic turning point of the four. In the last week of October, Sejong’s sale market turned positive by KB standards. The uptrend was also confirmed in the Korea Real Estate Board’s weekly price index. While we cannot conclude that it has hit bottom just because the price index is rebounding before actual transaction prices, it is noteworthy that changes in the market are appearing.
More importantly, there is the jeonse market. Sejong’s jeonse price growth rate jumped to 0.40% in the last week of October, ranking first among all provinces and cities nationwide, and the cumulative total for this year reached 6.8%. The gap with the 0.7% cumulative sale increase is piled up like firewood. The fact that jeonse prices are swelling at this speed in a city that has been in a slump for three years means that residential demand has already returned, and all that remains is the decision to buy. It is correct to treat the Administrative Capital issue as a bonus, not a variable. Because even without policy tailwinds, the conditions for a bottom-turnaround have been met by supply and demand alone. I have adhered to the principle throughout this year of "withholding a bottom theory for Sejong until two consecutive weeks of positive sales," and that principle was half-satisfied this week. The moment the remaining half is confirmed is the official spring for Sejong.
Busan—Coming to Where the Decline Has Vanished
Busan is in the earliest stage of the four, so it is a market that requires the longest breath. However, the signals are clear. First, the decline is vanishing. Busan’s weekly fluctuation rate is between -0.01% and 0.00%, and the number of regions in decline is decreasing every week. A stop in the decline is the first stage of bottom formation. Second, jeonse turned around first. Busan’s cumulative jeonse rise is 3.3%, far outstripping sales (0.2%), and jeonse prices in Haeundae and Yeonje are rising steadily. Third, the extreme pessimism reflected in a Buyer-Seller Index of 17.6. It is a recurring pattern at the end of winter that supply and demand improve first in price ranges that everyone is ignoring.
There is a precedent for this. Ulsan, which belongs to the same industrial belt, rode the shipbuilding and automotive boom to hit a 3.6% cumulative rise this year, ranking first among metropolitan cities. If the warmth of the order boom was confirmed in Ulsan, the next in line is Busan, which has ports, ship repair industries, and rich living infrastructure. Busan in the first half of 2027 will be a market of “confirming the turn to growth” rather than “growth” itself. The jeonse-to-sale price ratio and transaction volume in high-end Eastern Busan areas like Haeundae, Suyeong, and Dongnae are the indicators for that confirmation.
Conclusion—The Common Denominator of the Four Regions
Salaries are the basis for Gyeonggi, jeonse for Incheon, the rebound in sale prices for Sejong, and the reduced rate of decline for Busan. However, there is one common denominator that cuts through all four: that supply and demand are speaking, not sentiment. During the nine weeks this year when the sentiment index and prices diverged, the side that was wrong was always sentiment. Fear is recorded in indices, but salaries and jeonse expiration dates are recorded in official property registers.
Of course, there are conditions. If additional regulations are introduced, there will be a time lag. However, I include the record of this year. The efficacy of regulations lasted 10 weeks, and the regulations failed to extinguish demand, merely changing its address. The spring created by that 10-week suppression is Dongtan’s 0.98%. If the same scene repeats in the first half of 2027, the ones who win are those who write down in advance not where the suppression is, but where the suppression will be released.
Prices do not follow the news. They follow monthly salaries, supply of listings, and the expiration of jeonse contracts. Those three factors currently point to Gyeonggi, Incheon, Sejong, and Busan.